By T, Staffer of De Birhan Media
August 08, 2012
Meles Zenawi
Meles vanished around two months ago, most TPLFities
and government officials have been saying that Meles was a human
being and his departure from his position would have no impact either on
the government or the ruling party. They pretend as if they were not worried
and no story is happening regarding in the backroom. That is
the quality of this regime and its apostles. They can do their
thing with a zipped mouth, for how long though? They appear calm while their
essence is not.
Despite their claims
that Meles was well and in a "better condition", he cannot come back
on the media for at least five minutes and refute the growing reports
that declare his 'death'. There are various outlets that say the
regime has been deliberating on who should take over the Prime
Minister's post.
Sibhat
Nega, veteran of the ruling party
also admitted, either deliberately or through a slip of
a tongue, on Deutsche Welle Radio Amharic Service that that
they are now at the stage and working on "power succession". Two
weeks ago, the same Sebhat said that the death, resignation or removal of
"individuals" within the regime and party makes
no difference on the health of the regime as it has built
"strong institutions".
Meles Zenawi's silver tongues and his "yes
sirness" to donors have made him the darling of many enabling him to
preside over various international projects and organisations.
But is that really so? Does Meles' sudden departure from his
post due to death or ill health have little effect on the regime or world?
We argue it does have enormous repercussions. At least his
sudden unplanned departure gets many into a jam both locally and
internationally. Let's broach some of them:
POSITIONS
§ Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is the
Co-Chairperson of the Global Coalition for Africa (GCA.). The Global
Coailition for Africa brings together senior African policy makers and their
partners to deepen dialogue and build consensus on Africa's priority
development issues. Meles in this position entertained a lot of
weight and roles. There are several programs and plans that he has planned to
be executed by himself within the Coalition. This World
Bank Project will remain 'leaderless' after Meles.
§ In 2004, Prime Minister Tony Blair of
the United Kingdom appointed Prime Minister Meles Zenawi as one of the
Commissioners taking part in the Commission for Africa. This Commission
claims to work for "a strong and prosperous Africa". Meles' roles
within this Commission are unclear but are surely significant. His
departure would big time affect the Commission's undertakings.
§
§ Meles lead the New Partnership for
Africa's Development (NEPAD). NEPAD's primary objectives are to
eradicate poverty, to place African countries, both individually and
collectively, on a path of sustainable growth and development, to halt the marginalisation
of Africa in the globalisation process, to accelerate the empowerment of women
and to fully integrate Africa into the global economy. NEPAD is one big lot
of Organization that takes the Prime Minister's vastest period of
daily chores. Meles' total absence means NEPAD will be losing its key
figure all of a sudden with unfinished and un-transferred projects and a
vacant spot.
§ Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has often been
chosen to represent Africa at the G8 Summit
and the G20 summit
in London. Western powers and organizers of the G8 and
G20 summits would find it very difficult to easily pick
a replacement who would be as 'fitting' as Meles Zenawi.
§ In February 2010, the UN named Ethiopian Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi as co-chair of the Advisory Group on Climate Change
Financing, a new high-level U.N. advisory group on climate change
financing. He has taken so many roles and responsibilities of generating
finances on behalf of the Group. Another opening due to him suddenly
departing.
§
§ Horn of Africa : Regionally, as the East
African reported in its latest issue "Zenawi has been one of the
key players in the fight against the Somali militant organisation Al-Shabaab.
He also actively participated in resolving the dispute between Sudan and South
Sudan, which has seen the two countries fight several brief border wars.Zenawi
has also been one of the movers behind massive development projects like Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET)." All
these projects may continue but not as they would while in Meles' presence.
With his absence, Meles takes the personal involvements, roles and
secrets that he kept alone alongside.
§
§ Chairman of Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF),
Chairman of Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and the
Commander-in-Chief of Ethiopian Armed Forces: all these posts have been held
undeteringly for over two decades by one person only : Meles Zenawi. In Meles'
absence the Ethiopia armed forces have no one to take orders from. Both TPLF
and EPRDF the makers and breakers of the national politics and regime
have not got their usual leader who used to fire members he viewed as
a challenge and pull those he liked. The parties and Ethiopian army
has no leader at the moment.
In general, Meles' sudden departure would leave the regime in
Addis Abeba, and the regional and international organisations
that he was involved in, vacant and in trouble. The troubles could be in
finding proper successors that would resemble him, are capable
of continuing what he started. Meles will go with the secrets,
back door deals and responsibilities that he alone secreted. The
regime's heavyweights are often heard saying that they have built a
"strong institution" that cannot be altered when people/leaders
change or move. The truth is, the institution that
they claim to have built and speak proudly of is the "one ethnic
group led security apparatus: the military and
the intelligence". The day that one or a group dissent from the
security apparatus, the so called vague "institutionalization"
crumbles. Meles Zenawi had the qualities of holding this security apparatus
together and loyal to him. Would the incoming PM be able to do same?
Article 74 of the current Constitution states that the
Prime Minister is the Chief Executive, the Chairman of the Council of
Ministers, and the Commander-in-Chief of the national armed forces. It seems
when the Constitution was written Meles thought he was going to reign forever.
The Prime Minister is like an absolute Monarch in Ethiopia's case according to
the current constitution. The next person who comes on Meles' foots would hold
all these gigantic executive powers which include
firing Generals, dissolving the Parliament or reshuffling
the government and forming a new regime. Although the
suspected successors of Meles such as Dr. Tewodros Adhanom, Berhane
Gebrekirstos, Abay Woldu and Arkebe Okubay come from the same party and ethnic
group as Meles, they all have different characteristics, experiences and
virtues from Meles. There is no guarantee that these newcomers may not be
democratic, reformists and peace makers. The successor of Meles has
all the absolute opportunity, executive power and 'personality' to
open a national dialogue and negotiation with all oppositions, free
all political prisoners and start a new democratic course for a new
Ethiopia. This may include Hailemariam Dessalgne may he inherit Meles' place.
The room for the severe administration and
extreme dictatorialness of the new Prime Minister is also wide open,
but lets not hope for this to be the case.
The point here is : as the Ethiopian constitution
assigns absolute power to/on the Prime Minister, the upcoming Prime
Minister (even if guarded by radical old guards), could reform the system and
country by using the security apparatus or without. People
differ, it is a truism.
The point here is : as the Ethiopian constitution assigns absolute power to/on the Prime Minister, the upcoming Prime Minister (even if guarded by radical old guards), could reform the system and country by using the security apparatus or without. People differ, it is a truism.
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