By T, Blogger of De Birhan Blogspot
Osman Hummaida, Executive Director of
African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies (ACJPS), this was the record of what happened in the region :"On the 28th and 29th of August, the Sudanese ruling National Congress Party (NCP) moved significant military forces---comprised of Popular Defense Forces (PDF), national security, and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)---with heavy military equipment into Blue Nile state. [ ...]
"On September 1st at 11:00 PM the joint forces of SAF and the PDF opened fire on a three-car SPLM convey carrying a delegation out of Al Damazein at the town’s southern checkpoint. The fire was returned and fighting moved inside the town to the areas of Al Nahda, the crops market, the industrial area and the nearby NCP military headquarters.
"Later the same night, the popular militia, brought from Khartoum by aircraft, attacked the SPLM residential area in Al Mustshareen sector and open fire on the house of Governor Malik Agar, killing members of his guards and arresting others. Witnesses say that the Sudanese government forces fired on anyone that appeared to be affiliated with the SPLM and arrested some others.
"Heavy military equipment from the North has been distributed inside the civilians sectors in the town including in Hai Alganes where witnesses say they saw five tanks and three military landcruisers with doshka guns mounted to them. Witnesses said that around 30 civilians were killed as a result of the fighting and many others were injured.
"The NCP and SPLM have suffered more than 200 fatalities and approximately 500 more were injured in the fighting. Following the initial fighting, the SPLM is in control of Albao, Kurmuk and Gisaan and the rest of the state remains under NCP control.
"The fighting has caused around 50,000 civilians---mostly women, children, and elderly men---to flee Al Damazein and Al Rusairis towns into Sennar state. The Northern military forces have closed the main road linking Blue Nile to Sennar, causing those fleeing the areas of fighting to have to take more difficult roads impacted by the rainy season.
"On 2 September, Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir declared a state of emergency in Blue Nile and suspended the application of the interim constitution there. A series of presidential orders were issued, including one removing the elected governor Malik Agar and installing a military governor to replace him. Far from protecting civilians, the state of emergency allows the Northern militias and the SAF to arrest and try anyone suspected of affiliation with the SPLM. In this context, it is possible that anyone who is not a member of NCP may be targeted for arrest and summary trial.
"On 3 September, aircraft continued to bomb SPLM areas. The main water reservoir in Al Damazein was destroyed in the bombardment, possibly in a deliberate attempt to deprive the population of this essential resource. About 75 bodies have been confirmed to be present in the Al Damazein morgue. The hospital has declared an emergency. Clashes have continued in the Hai Alzira area. The NCP has called all remaining civilians in Al Damazein and Al Rusairis to gather inside the military headquarters as a safe area.
On the other hand, the Sudanese Government accued the rebel Group led by Agar as the first attackers.According to an Al Jazeera report,
"Al-Sowarmy Khalid Saad, a Sudanese army spokesman, said SPLM forces attacked Sudan's army in and around al-Damazin, the state capital, late on Thursday.Khartoum also said it had dismissed the state governor, who is a member of the SPLM's northern branch, and the SPLM condemned the decision to fire the governor. The army responded and was now in control, he said.Malik Agar, Blue Nile's governor, told the Reuters news agency before the decision to relieve him of his post was announced, that "The Sudanese army started the attack on our positions".Similar clashes and mutual accusations about who was to blame have led to an escalation in violence in South Kordofan, another state in the north that is on the southern border. Thousands previously fled violence in another hotspot, Abyei.
Malik Agar was the commander of a section of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) military forces along the Sudanese-Ethiopian border south of the Blue Nile to Geissan.
He was elected governor of Blue Nile State in the Republic of the Sudan in April 2010. In February 2011 Malik Agar also became chairman of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (northern sector), the part of the SPLM that operates in northern Sudan. The SPLM-NS became a separate political party when Southern Sudan seceded from the Republic of Sudan in July 2011. On 2 September, Agar was deposed as governor on the orders of President Omar al-Bashir. He fled to the southern part of the state and is reportedly planning a counterattack. He has warned that the Sudan–SPLM conflict may ignite a wider Sudanese civil war, sources report.

- Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
The January 30, 2009 note released by Wikileaks, an anti-secrecy website, detailed discussions that took place between Zenawi and Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Phil Carter with the presence of the Director of Sudan Programs Group (SPG) at the US State Department Tim Shortley.
Focus of the talks was on the widely expected issuance of an arrest warrant against Bashir by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of war crimes he allegedly committed in Sudan’s western region of Darfur.
The Sudanese leader was officially charged a little over a month after this meeting took place on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The more serious counts of genocide were only added a year later after appeal by the ICC prosecutors. Zenawi told the US delegation that the warrant could encourage someone in Khartoum to stage a coup but said that success of such an attempt would be nearly zero due to the close connections and mutual support for one another among senior NCP officials which would suppress any coup attempt.
“If Bashir remains in power, either because no such coup attempt is made or an attempt fails, the indictment will leave the Bashir regime a wounded animal that is more desperate than ever,” the cable quoted Zenawi as saying.The Ethiopian Premier agreed with assertions made by US acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs that Khartoum’s actions seem to undermine their own long-term interests.
However, Zenawi also argued that the ruling party in Sudan is disappointed over US refusal to normalise ties despite signing the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended more than two decades of civil war with the South.At the time, Washington promised Khartoum that it will normalise ties as a reward. However, the conflict in Darfur made the US hesitant to do so amid intense domestic pressure to take action that would reverse the growing humanitarian crisis in Sudan’s western region.
“While the [Government of Sudan] GoS thought that they had moved away from a climate of bad relations with Washington when they signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Naivasha, they perceive the United States as having shifted the goal posts on them since" Zenawi said.As a result, Zenawi asserted that the GoS believes that "the U.S. will get them one way or the other," and from that perspective, they are already in a corner. "Believing they will lose, they perceive no benefit to them of resolving the problems of South Sudan”, the Ethiopian top official said.
Zenawi said that the NCP’s strategy as a result will be to deploy delaying tactics such as postponing the January 2011 referendum, buy time on Darfur and "hope for a miracle" in 2011. South Sudan’s self determination did go ahead in January resulting in a massive vote for independence, which it achieved in January. Sudan was the first country to recognise South Sudan’s secession."To die today or die tomorrow, they will choose to employ delaying mechanisms allowing them to die tomorrow" Zenawi explained.He said that while the "Islamic agenda" may have motivated the regime ten years ago, today they are interested only in money and power.
He pressed the case that direct negotiations between Khartoum and Washington could lead to rational discussions.Zenawi then went on to wrap up his views saying that if he were the United States he would look at two options.The first one, which he clearly conveyed as the preferred choice according to the US cable, would be to "remove the Bashir regime."
Acknowledging that such an option was unlikely, Zenawi advocated for making a clear representation to the GoS that the United States is not "out to get them" and laying out clear benchmarks of actions expected of the GoS on both Darfur and South Sudan that would be necessary to "avoid continued challenges" with the US. He concluded the discussion by highlighting that "they [Khartoum] don’t trust the Obama Administration," and "they trust the Obama Administration less than the Bush Administration," and with a clear reference to US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice and former Senior NSC Director for Africa Gayle Smith. Both officials are considered hardliners in their views of Khartoum.
Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia are considered to be generally strong in recent years. Addis Ababa was one of Bashir’s first stops after the ICC arrest warrant.Ethiopia is seen as an honest broker by Sudanese parties and has hosted numerous meetings between north and south over the past two years.More recently Ethiopia agreed to deploy its troops as part of a United Nations peacekeeping mission to Sudan’s disputed Abyei region.
Khartoum sent tanks and troops into oil-producing Abyei last May, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee the fighting. But both sides agreed to set up a demilitarised zone along the border after talks in Addis Ababa. Last month Zenawi attempted to mediate between the NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) in a bid to end the ongoing clashes that erupted last June in South Kordofan. However, the effort seemed to have been fruitless.
To makes matters worse, the Sudanese army on Friday clashed with the SPLM-N fighters in Blue Nile state which borders Ethiopia. It remains to be seen how the latter would react particularly given reports of exodus by civilian population from the state in the aftermath of the fighting.There are small signs however, that relations between Addis Ababa and Khartoum are not as smooth as it seems.
The government sponsored Sudanese Media Center (SMC) website has carried a report that was critical of choosing Ethiopian troops to deploy in Abyei citing national security concerns and Addis Ababa ties with Israel. Furthermore, the Paris-based Indian Ocean newsletter reported concerns by Addis Ababa over information of meetings between Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) officers and members of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and leaders of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP).
The report said Khartoum on the other hand is angered over Ethiopian military support to Juba which it claims is falling into the hands of SPLM-N in South Kordofan. The SPLM-N is the northern sector of South Sudan’s ruling party the SPLM. During Sudan’s second north-south civil war (1983-2005) large numbers of marginalised groups in Blue Nile and South Kordofan joined the SPLM in their conflict with Khartoum. Khartoum has said it now perceives the SPLM-N to be an illegal military force and political party, which continues to be backed by the SPLM in South Sudan. In October 2008 Sudan summoned the Ethiopian ambassador to protest against weapons that it said had arrived in South Sudan’s capital Juba on an Ethiopian military plane.
In another cable, in a 2006 meeting A/S Frazer told PM Meles that increasing U.S. engagement with the African Union would be jeopardized if the upcoming AU Summit in Khartoum elected Sudanese President Bashir the next President of the General Assembly. Meles said he did not think that Bashir had the votes to be elected, although Egypt and Libya supported his candidacy.
Where is the Horn heading to ? What are Ethiopian's opposition parties doing ?


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