With a TPLF/EPRDF insider in the Diaspora
The drums of war against Eritrea and perhaps Egypt are being beaten by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRDF).The political clout and motion is rapidly changing within the government and the country. While a growing number of Ethiopian youth are in preparation of staging an ‘Arab’like revolution in Ethiopia under the motto of ‘Beka’ (Enough),the Meles’ ‘sultanate’ is also tactically rerouting the Movement into other issues of border war with Eritrea, Damming of the Abay River, and Growth and Transformation Plan. Two weeks ago, I had an online conversation with one of my informers from the TPLF/EPRDF party, whom I recurrently draw on either to balance a tip that I have got or to seek fresh information. For the safety of my interviewee, I prefer to nickname him as Ato EPRDF hereafter. I have never published any of the interviews I had done with my sources from the ruling party, however, I decided to post it this time, presumptuous that it would proofer a little insight about the positions of the ruling party to my critical readers. The source is well informed, up-to-date, 'key' and insider of the TPLF/EPRDF. Following is the unflattering opinion he shared with this Blogger (Anko Zuta) on various issues of political interest.
17-04-2011
De Birhan: I wanted to know what you make of the strategic shift towards Eritrea and the overall political situation in Ethiopia.
Ato EPRDF: I think the political situation in Ethiopia is alright. I think the change in strategy is good, but I don’t know how they are going to do it.
De Birhan : It appears as if the main rhetoric was first diplomacy, finally War.
Ato EPRDF: I know our government is arming and supporting Eritrean opposition groups, they have been doing that for a while, but it hasn't brought any significant change.
De Birhan: some say it is just "displacing the attention of the population to the outside world''.
Ato EPRDF: That could be it.Ethiopia could be denounced if it took direct action against Eritrea by the international community and our funders. So I am doubtful.
De Birhan: Well the Foreign Minister has made the diplomatic readiness to avert that by lobbying the United Nations. Didn’t he? While there is no premises to go out on a limb.
Ato EPRDF: I think the Ethiopian government has credible evidence to support its accusation against Eritrea, they attempted even to disrupt the AU meeting in Addis Ababa. And nowadays it’s difficult to trust the UN and the Security Council; we don’t know how the big nations may act/respond if we go to attack them.
De Birhan: Well strategicwise we are less useful so don't worry. But isn't UN's 2009 embargo on Eritrea being implemented?
Ato EPRDF: We are important strategically and diplomatically man.No war no peace policy,we have now will do its trick in years to come and is a better scenario, that’s better than war. UN'S Ruling is not implemented.Eritrea showed some positive move; they pulled their troops from Djibouti...the EPRDF lost a golden opportunity to oust Shaebiya in 1998...now it’s too late too good. The Ethiopian government shouldn’t even have transferred the border issue to a foreign commission...We should have had crushed Shaebiya. Control the land and ignore Shaebiya for good till it attempts to retake it.That should have been our move.
DE Birhan: So war now?
Ato EPRDF : I don’t think so...Ethiopia is in difficult situation, the country is trying to strike a good balance between local demands and international expectations, imagine our government receives billions of dollars in form of aid and loan, if we start a war it can all stop, and we can go back to square one.
De Birhan : do you fear an uprising in Ethiopia?
Ato EPRDF: no not at all...I expect Dr. Negede or the other leaders of the opposition to go to Meskel square and set themselves on fire to trigger a carbon copy of jasmine revolution,,,
De Birhan : hahaha Would they? Doubtful I am.
Ato EPRDF: you know we have nine regions now, so it’s impossible to see drastic change in Ethiopia through the Jasmine style of revolution. In Tunisia people sacrificed their lives and brought down the government, in Ethiopia the opposition groups don’t want to pay a price for change...they expect the youth to go and die.
De Birhan : well I get communication that there are similar types of self organised youth in Ethiopia too.
Ato EPRDF: In Addis people can organise a rally against the City Administration or against their representatives in the parliament...There will be no Bengazzi and Tripoli in Ethiopia. I don’t think such thing will happen in Ethiopia, we are not new to civil wars as you know there are potential predators that can hijack the situation, we have Islamist extremists, OLF,ONLF and all sort of armed rebellion groups. A rebellion starts in the brain...there are some people in Addis who wish for a revolution, if they really want to pay sacrifice and bring a change...they can do it....100% who ever manages to mobilise the public will succeed but I feel they won’t pay the sacrifice.
De Birhan: Do you think the Government will act ruthlessly? Shoot them?
Ato EPRDF: No. Due to the above reasons I explained.
De Birhan : And the army?
In Egypt, Tunisia the army took over...what’s going to happen in Ethiopia....will the army agree to remove Meles from power, will they agree to remove the EPRDF from power....? What’s the structure and background of our armed forces and how are they viewed by the people....?
De Birhan : Would the army stand with Meles forever?
Ato EPRDF : as we have a federal government, if the public in Addis Ababa wanted a change then the City Administration can be disbanded...and another election could be held. But I don’t expect rebellion in certain regions of Ethiopia. Some will definitely show support, not everyone is dissatisfied with the government. In the presence of article 39 any violent path could lead to the fragmentation and blood shade of the country. I hope true democracy and tolerance are the only choices we have to stay under one Ethiopia...in Libya; the war now is partly tribal. Without our army, security forces etc...the opposition groups can’t do a thing, and their main enemy is Ethiopian army...for them Ethiopian army is Weyane army which ousted the Dergue.
De Birhan: The ‘democraticness’ and tolerance is at your hand, I hope Ambesayee. But from where will change come from?
Ato EPRDF : only the OLF, IFLO, ONLF,EPPF etc...can bring real change provided they manage to destroy the current army, but those groups seem to be incapable and divided....otherwise change if it happens will be from within and it won’t be drastic...it will be symbolic...
De Birhan : Thank you!
Ato EPRDF : Ok w.c.