Sunday, October 10, 2010

EPRDF to begin a new campaign on the Diaspora, seeks more aid from Donors

By Ankober

With the ambition of successfully undertaking the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) the Ethiopian government outlined that it needs over a trillion birr to fully realize it within five years from now. Main sources identified are:

1. Foreign development partners/donors

2. Local sources-taxation

3. Diaspora

‘Though the Plan is bright and admirable, Meles’ ambitions of ‘Ethiopia’s Renaissance and seeing its industrialization’ can’t come true at all without first creating a cross sectional political and social consensus within the country.’’ posits Tibebu Damenu, a close spectator of Ethiopian current affairs.

When Meles and Co. introduced the details of the Plan to donor communities and foreign partners at the end of last month in Addis, several questions were raised by the latter.

Donors groups have raised several questions, they include:

1. private sector involvement

2. social welfare

3. handling possible threats of overheating developments

4. aid effectiveness

5. Good governance and human rights and the like

Meles was unhappy about these requirements thus, he had two options as he is decided that he get their money. First he released the first female opposition party leader, Bertukan Mideksa and met with lapdog opposition parties. Secondly, he said that there should not be a pre-policy requirement to access financial assistance as Ethiopia is a sovereign country and begged them to continue the budgetary support which was restricted following the 2005 election.

Mobilizing domestic resources, taxation and involving the Ethiopian Diaspora to help boost the government’s revenue are the other sources selected to make the trillion. Thus, with this aim in mind; a good number of cadres and former ministers that are not part of the ‘new government’ will head to the Diaspora with the dream of co-opting and tapping the wealth of the Ethiopia Diaspora.

GTP Sections and Departments will be formed

within and without most of the Ethiopian embassies in Europe and Northern America. The sole mission of these departments is to oversee and accomplish the GTP. The Ethiopian Diaspora has been the most polarised émigré group with the majority of them being con the regime in Ethiopia. The GTP aims to rigorously work on this group and lure them towards its Plan.

Mobilizing domestic resources mainly is an attempt to double the current taxation rate thus increasing its budget to realize the GTP. The current taxation rate in Ethiopia is one of the highest in Africa causing a public uproar frequently.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Great dynasties of the world: The Ethiopian royal family

A clan that began with King Solomon

  • The Guardian,

SABMiller Uses Success With `Holy Water' to Target Ethiopia's Beer Market

Editors Note: Unlike what Meles and Co. say newoliberalism is in full gear in Ethiopia under TPLF/EPRDF.Ambo Weha is now privatized with the likelihood of the Beer Sector soon being privatized.


By Nicky Smith and William Davison - Oct 8, 2010 4:10 PM GMT

SABMiller Plc, the world’s second- largest brewer by volume, is using its success with Ethiopian “holy water” to encourage the country’s government to sell it state-owned breweries.

SABMiller has invested $20 million since last year buying Ambo, which bottles a strong-tasting, naturally sparkling water from a valley of the same name about 130 kilometers (81 miles) west of the capital, Addis Ababa. The water, named after the town, is sold locally as Ambo Tabel, which means holy water in Amharic, and is touted as a historical cure for ailments from diabetes to obesity, according to London-based SABMiller.

“We thought it would be a great business and great opportunity to enter Ethiopia,” Mark Bowman, the managing director of SABMiller’s African operations, said. “This water brand is probably the most powerful brand in Ethiopia, it’s as close to buying a holy water as one can get.”

Ethiopia’s Meta Abo, Bedele and Harar breweries, which the government said today are up for sale, hold a combined 37 percent market share, according to London-based Plato Logic Ltd., which estimates that Ethiopians drink about 3.8 liters of beer (1 gallon) on average each year compared with 10 liters in the rest of the continent.

The government is offering auction documents for a joint- venture partner to run Meta Abo while the sale of Harar and Bedele will take place before the fiscal year ends in July, Wondafrash Assefa, a spokesman for the government’s Privatization Agency, said from Addis Ababa today.

Other Bidders

Habesha Breweries Share Co., a newly formed company, plans to bid for Meta Abo, Eskinder Desta, a spokesman for Habesha, said. Meta Abo may fetch as much as $55 million, Harar may be worth up to $30 million and Bedele around $20 million, he said.

Ambo, of which SABMiller owns 68 percent, produces 35 million liters a year, accounting for 85 percent of Ethiopia’s mineral water market, SABMiller said. The brewer paid $21 million for the stake, the Addis Ababa-based Reporter said. SABMiller spokesman Jonathan Oates didn’t give details on the transaction in an e-mailed response to questions yesterday.

SABMiller has improved technology and marketing and cut workers to 300 from 700 since buying what was a “defunct” business, Bowman said in an interview in Johannesburg.

Can’t Be Ignored

This may improve chances for the 115-year-old brewer of Miller Genuine Draft and Castle Lager in bidding for state- brewing assets in a country that posted economic growth last year of 8.7 percent, he said.

“You can’t ignore 80 million people,” Bowman said. “We’ve had a look over time at beer interests in Ethiopia that haven’t been available to us and we came across Ambo.”

The town of Ambo, surrounded largely by bare hillsides, has about 50,000 residents. Emperor Haile Selassie used to bath in the hot springs that still fill an outdoor pool popular with tourists. About 63 percent of Ethiopians are Christians, more than two-thirds of which are Orthodox Christians and the balance from other denominations, according to government statistics. About a third of the country’s population are Muslim.

A plastic bottle production line is being commissioned for Ambo to grow volumes and cut packaging and transport costs, Bowman said. It is also introducing Ambo Light, a “more lightly sparkling version,” at the end of the month.

‘Double-Digit Growth’

The business may post “double-digit” growth over the next two to three years, he said.

SABMiller’s partner in 18 African countries, Castel Groupe, controls 62 percent of Ethiopia’s beer market with its Dashen and Kombolcha operations, Plato Logic said. A seventh brewery is planned by Habesha, it said. Beer drinking in Ethiopia will grow 15 percent in five years as disposable income increases, Addis Ababa-based Access Capital said in a May 28 note.

SABMiller bought three water businesses in Africa last year, including Voltic in Ghana and Nigeria, Rwenzori in Uganda, and Ambo. Africa’s water market is growing 18 percent a year and has accounts for 4 percent of the company’s African sales.

Volumes in SABMiller’s Africa region, which accounts for 10 percent of sales, grew 7 percent in the first quarter of the 2011 fiscal year, which Bowman said he expects to maintain for the rest of the year.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nicky Smith in Johannesburg at nsmith38@bloomberg.net; William Davison in Addis Ababa via Johannesburg at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Ethiopian refugees say they are tricked, forced onto security force; families punished

By Katharine Houreld (CP) 6-10-10

DADAAB, Kenya — Ethiopian refugees in Kenya say they are being tricked into joining a government security force in a violent region of Ethiopia, and that their families face retaliation if they refuse.

Ethiopia's government says it is unaware of anyone coercing refugees to return or join the new police force it set up in the volatile eastern Ogaden region, which borders chaotic Somalia and is home to a long-simmering rebellion led by Ethiopians of Somali origin.

Putting a local face on Ethiopia's security forces — which Human Rights Watch accused of rape, torture and executions in a 2008 report — is essential to clinching a peace deal with a faction of the rebels. A rebel spokesman said the deal could be reached this month.

The refugees, though, say abuses are still happening, and that many of them are being tricked or coerced into joining the new police force.

"Whenever (the recruiters) meet a young man, they say if you don't go with us, your family (in Ethiopia) will be beaten," said 27-year-old Nur, a refugee who says he fled to neighbouring Kenya nearly two years ago after Ethiopian troops killed his brother and uncle.

Nur said about 10 of his friends have joined the new force. The recruits are lured by the promise of money and an escape from this dusty refugee camp in eastern Kenya, and are frightened by threats to their families.

Nur and 16 other Ethiopian refugees interviewed by The Associated Press late last month asked that their full names not be used to protect them from reprisals. All but one said they had either been recruited, approached by recruiters, or had seen family members join.

The refugees said that recruiters promise money and either a job or the opportunity to go and see how peaceful the region is before returning with their families.

Such offers can be enticing. Even a little cash is a fortune in the Dadaab camps because the Kenyan government prohibits refugees from leaving or seeking work.

The recruits travel in groups of up to 25 by vehicle to the border and then to the Ethiopian town of Suf. There they are given uniforms, guns and training, said the deserters, who said they got some of their information from men who had stayed.

Ethiopia is a military powerhouse in East Africa and a U.S. ally in the fight against al-Qaida-linked insurgents in neighbouring Somalia. Last year it received $865 million in U.S. aid, plus an unpublished amount for counter-terrorism assistance.

It also has a history of forcing its citizens to join pro-government forces, said Leslie Lefkow, a researcher at Human Rights Watch. She said she has heard dozens of stories of forced recruitment. Family members could be beaten, detained or forced to pay money if they couldn't furnish a recruit, she said.

That's what Abdisalam, 38, said happened after he rescued his younger brother and two friends from the recruiters.

"They threatened to kill me," Abdisalam said quietly, as he sat hidden from the baking sun and prying eyes in the mud-walled sitting room of a local youth leader.

Less than a week after he persuaded his brother to return to the overcrowded Dadaab camp, their sister in Ethiopia was jailed. Family members were told it was in retaliation for her brother's "anti-government" activities.

"They said I am a rebel and working against the government," he said. "I told them I'm only saving my brother. Now my sister is in jail. The war that we fled has followed us and we are not safe anywhere."

Ethiopia government spokesman Shimeles Kemal confirmed that the government was talking to one rebel faction and regional authorities had founded a new police force in the Ogaden aimed at "mopping up" the rest of the rebels. But he said he was unaware of any recruitment by government agents in refugee camps.

"That's not possible," he said. "It's not in line with the principles of the regional government ... I have no knowledge of such incidents."

The rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front, founded in 1984, accuses the ethnically Tigray-dominated government of starving Ethiopia's ethnically Somali region of resources and killing its residents. The conflict is also complicated by clan loyalties.

"They are going to claim they have an agreement with the ONLF (rebels) soon," said Abdirahman Mahdi, a London-based rebel spokesman. "Their strategy before was to recruit militias and fight us. This is a new strategy because there is a lot of pressure from the international community for a settlement but people are still very angry."

Mahdi said his faction of the ONLF would not negotiate unless another country was willing to act as a credible guarantor.

In Dadaab, many refugees say they no longer believe peace is possible. Among them was a woman who arrived to speak to AP veiled from head to foot. She was too fearful even to give her first name.

Through a translator, the woman said that five months ago Ethiopian forces came to her home in the Ogaden. They killed the men, she said, and gang-raped the women before throwing them into a fire. After the translator stepped outside, she disrobed in the fading light, pressing a journalist's hand against the bands of puckered burn tissue across her torso.

"I can't forget what happened," she said later. "How can I trust the government speaking of peace?"

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Bertukan out of Jail

Bertukan Mideksa
Jailed opposition leader Birtukan Mideksa has been freed from prison around 5 AM local time.Her village ,Ferensaye Legasyon has been crowded by visitors awaiting her arrival since last night .

Meles has previously declared "There will never be an agreement with anybody to release Birtukan. Ever. Full stop. That's a dead issue." Sources in Ethiopia suggest it is unlikely that the recent successful negotiations involved Birtukan apologizing to the government and analysts believe the government is trying to repair its damaged image after what critics said was an embarrasing election that led to a one-party parliament. Local reports said Birtukan did not ask for a pardon in the latest "deal" with the government negotiated by elders led by former Harvard University Professor Ephraim Isaac.

Birtukan is the leader of the Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ), a multi national party that formed out of the CUD group that won atleast one third of the vote during the disputed 2005 election. Her UDJ party is a leading member of the new MEDREK coalition that won nearly 30 percent of the votes during the recent 2010 election but only one seat. She was imprisoned in 2005 alongside other opposition officials for agreeing with international observers that confirmed the election results were rigged and could have led to the removal of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's ruling party. Observers said Birtukan and others were arrested for accusing the government for the massacre of around 200 protesters during the post election period. In 2007, Birtukan was released after allegedly asking for pardon but was re-imprisoned for denying she requested the pardon.

Monday, October 4, 2010

An Editorial note?

Although always leftist in his views, and not surprisingly so, as he was part of the youth of the 1970s, Meles Zenawi has never been more academic and intellectual in his articulation of his challenge to what he considers is the failing policy prescriptions of global neoliberalism, market fundamentalism, in Africa.

Although veiled in a disclaimer that his doctoral thesis on the subject (to the University of Rotterdam) does not reflect policies of the government that he leads, it was obvious that it was a matter of time before the tenet of his arguments would creep into official documents of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)-led government.

In his own admission, his was the paper that tried to repackage his party’s ideological conviction of so long into an academic challenge.

The role of the state in providing the push to overcome poverty in a developing nation is indispensable the intellectual Meles believes. The state thus needs to be a “developmental state” which ought to be democratic at the same time.

The politician Meles has embarked upon a bold project of making this state not only developmental and democratic (often unlikely bedfellows) but also ensuring continuity of political power to its leaders and cadres through a form of guarantee that is a “one party dominant state.”

For a political party with a history of centre-left ideology, as in the EPRDF, this appears to be a very pragmatic compromise. Unlike its forbearers in the leftist camp, it allows limited and strictly controlled room for other pillars of power and influence to exist and lets a tightly monitored marketplace of ideas emerge. However, this ought not reach the extent of a contesting political power to share or control the state.

The Revolutionary Democrats see the state as a useful instrument not only in steering economic growth but also as a powerful mechanism to help in the reengineering of society, in a manner that they see it fit, of course. Achieving economic growth is only a means to an end.

This end appears to evolve into a complete transformation of the country’s political economy to what is suitable for the ruling party. The one party state, which is apparently different from a single party system, aspires to form a boarder social base, including different interests of Ethiopian society under the umbrella of a governing movement. If at all there is a social group which the Revolutionary Democrats are reluctant to bring onboard, it is the private sector.

The space that the private sector seeks and how much of it governments are willing to concede is always debatable, both ideologically and academically, and varies from country to country.

Where the role of the state in society is defined as an institution that serves the common good - in its delivery of public goods such as collective security, administration of justice, and building of infrastructure - the private sector enjoys more space to thrive. This is an environment whereby a governing party that assumes political power involves liberalisation, privatisation, and deregulation.

The idea behind this is not without merit. A private sector that is less taxed and given much space to operate in the market creates jobs and wealth (for the private sector is considered to be more efficient in utilising resources than the public sector).

In addition, the embedded ideological conviction is that society could also be sheltered from the abusive dominance of the state apparatus. A state with fewer resources and as small a role as possible would have limited ability in intruding in the private affairs of citizens, ideally.

The mistrust between governments and businesses is nothing new; neither is it a phenomenon exclusive to former socialist regimes. Following the laissez-faire form of capitalism - which considers governments’ interference in the market a taboo - Western governments, particularly the United States (US), were convinced of the inevitable involvement of the state in the management of national economies. This view was, of course, reinforced by the historic crash of the world economy following the great Depression in the US in the early 1930s.

Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” was a policy prescription of Maynard Keynes, a British economist who was behind the formation of the Bretton Wood institutions: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB). He is also credited with developing the theory of “demand management,” a policy that encourages governments to use physical and monetary policy instruments to stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment.

What Meles has introduced recently as the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) sounds very similar to the consensus that was reached in the Western world after World War I, the Keynesian-led New Deal. A document, in the sketch stage and yet to be developed into a proper plan, that is, from the political expression of goodwill, the Revolutionary Democrats appear to be treading along the same lines as the capitalists of the 1930s in the US and Europe.

Here too, they swear on their desire to build a capitalist society in Ethiopia down the road when they help its population earn a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of 1,000 dollars. They aspire to have Ethiopia included on the list of middle-income countries by 2025. Their prescription of a policy that sounds very much like demand management clearly makes them “neo-Keynesians.” Perhaps, deceived by their leftist background, it would be misleading to think that they are the only political powers that have turned to the Keynesian model of macroeconomic management.

After the collapse of the global financial system and subsequent meltdown of the world economy in 2008, even the monetarist government of the US turned its face to Keynes. Dubbed by some as “Obanomics” and the “New-new Deal” by others, the US government and many of its peers in the West were seen bailing out their mega companies and trying to stimulate their national economies by injecting hundreds of billions in taxpayer money into them. With some of the companies that were "too big to fail," these governments took measures that barely stopped short of nationalisation.

Following these crises, leaders of the G-20, who held a meeting to which Meles had the privilege of being invited, took the advice of Keynes: market forces alone cannot salvage a national economy from collapse when declining business confidence is followed by a drop in investment, low consumption, depressed spending, and huge job losses. They concluded that government borrowing, spending, and a massive credit push in the economy becomes a necessary evil.

These recent developments have, indeed, vindicated politicians in the developing world, such as Meles, who have been trying to voice their discontent with the market fundamentalism of Ayn Rand and her disciples such as Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve for many years during the terms of George Bush Sr., Bill Clinton, and George Bush Jr.

It is obvious that the global liberal forces are on the retreat. As was the case in the early 1930s and the following decades, the time in Ethiopia and elsewhere in the world has come for social democratic ideals or centre-left parties.

Ethiopia’s history has not been short on such political powers. In fact, all its governments - whether imperial, military-Marxist, or guerrilla-cum-revolutionary democratic - had in common their views of what the state should be in the society they chose to govern.

To their luck, the popular view of the citizenry favours the involvement of the government in every affair of public life. Most Ethiopians do not seem to mind seeing a benevolent welfare state.

Although in the minority, this ideology of a paternalistic state is unsettling for many other people in Ethiopia. The growing influence and control of the government in the private business of citizens and groups sends a shiver down the spine of those who see that space for dissent and independent activities are increasingly stifled. It gets more alarming when the same government comes up with a desire to transform Ethiopia’s society but with the government taking up close to 85pc of the planned spending.

Meles's spending plan will be covered by local sources of income as much as possible the PM told donors last week at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Doing so will free himself and the administration he leads from the accountability that comes from outside through loans and grants, he believes.

In trying to accomplish this, his party plans to increase tax collection to the GDP to 17pc in five years, from the current nine per cent. A rough calculation of this in real terms reaches 170 billion Br, from taxpayers annually.

Such an ambitious plan of demand management and even more daring task of revenue collection from domestic sources are not without their own dire consequences.

Financing mega public projects with the policy objective of creating as many jobs as possible has had terrible consequences elsewhere in the world. The stagflation of the US economy in the 1970s (where inflation galloped to new heights while unemployment was high) compelled the free market politicians in the US to impose quotas and price controls during the era of Richard Nixon.

Citizens should be protected from abuses of the government, Ronald Regan believed, and, along with Margaret Thatcher of Britain, their two monetarist regimes helped recover the world economy in the 1980s. Advocating the trickledown effect in an economy, whereby the wealth of the rich inevitably reaches the working class, both leaders took the historic route of liberalisation and deregulation that has not only limited state power in their societies but also paved the way for unprecedented creation of global wealth for almost four decades.

It is refreshing to see Meles being ambitious and taking such bold initiatives. That is expected of a leader. However, There is only so much a government can do on its own, the economic history of the world shows. Perhaps, it may be worth his efforts to consider the private sector as much in his proposed (yet to be elaborated upon) plan. What the country has been deprived of for so long is a system that allows fair competition in the market, based on merit and one’s own efforts.(http://www.addisfortune.com/fortune_editors_note.html)


Saturday, October 2, 2010

As Western Civilization Lies Dying

By John Kozy


Global Research, September 29, 2010

The Western commercial system exists to extract more from consumers than it supplies in products and services. Its goal is profit and has never been to improve the human condition but to exploit it. When governments institutionalize this system, they place their nations on suicidal paths, because as Jefferson recognized, "Merchants have no country." It is not terrorism that threatens the security of the Western World, it is the Western World's commercial system.

A man suffering from severe chest pains collapses. His wife calls 911. An ambulance arrives, the EMTs treat the patient, place him in the ambulance's bed, and start off to the hospital. Along the way, the engine stalls. The ambulance's staff begins arguing about how to get the motor restarted. One says more gasoline is needed, another says there's water in the tank, a third says the fuel filter is clogged. While they argue, the patient lies dying.

This situation is analogous to what's happening in America and parts of Europe. While economists and politicians argue, their nations are in the throes of death. These people are looking for the devil in the details, but he is not there. It's the system itself that’s diabolical.

The Western commercial system is extractive. It exists to extract more from consumers than it supplies in products and services. Its goal is profit, and profit literally means to make more (pro-ficere). Its goal has never been to improve the human condition but to exploit it. It works like this:

Consider two water tanks, initially each partially full, one above the other. One gallon of water is dumped from the upper tank into the lower one for each two gallons extracted from the lower tank and pumped into the upper tank. Over time, the lower tank ends up empty and the upper tank ends up full. The circulation of water between the tanks ends.

Essentially, this scenario describes all commercial systems based on profit. It is why the top 20 percent of Americans has 93 percent of the nation's financial wealth and the bottom 80 percent has a mere seven percent. It is why the bottom 40 percent of all income earners in the United States now collectively own less than one percent of the nation’s wealth. It is why the nation's poverty rate is now14.3 percent, about 43.6 million people or one in seven. It is also why the Wall Street Journal has reported that 70 percent of people in North America live paycheck to paycheck. It is also why, despite numerous pledges over decades, no progress has been made in reducing world-wide poverty. The system is a thief.

The economy has collapsed not because of misfeasance, deregulation, or political bungling (although all may have been proximate causes), it has collapsed because the pockets of the vast majority of Americans have been picked. The housing bubble didn't burst because home prices had risen, it burst because the pockets of consumers had been picked so clean they could no longer service their mortgages.

What the wealthiest 20 percent of Americans don't realize is that some in this group will begin to target the others in order to keep the extractive process working. In fact, it's already happening. "The brute force of the recession earlier this year turned back the clock on Americans' personal wealth to 2004 and wiped out a staggering $1.3 trillion as home values shrank and investments withered." Little of this loss from investments was suffered by the lower 80 percent of Americans. There is, after all, no goodwill within greed, and the market can be and often is manipulated.

The "system" has impoverished the people, the circulation between the two tanks has been reduced to a trickle, and our economists have convinced the government that the only way to get things flowing again is to pour more water into the upper tank, hoping that the spillover will settle in the lower tank. Better to pray for rain!

This impoverishment has numerous mathematically certain implications; two major ones follow.

First, the system can't be fixed by tinkering with the details. At best, tinkering with the details can merely slow down the depletion of consumer wealth. As long as the system is based on profit, more must be taken than is given. The rate of depletion can be changed, but the depletion cannot be stopped. This conclusion is as mathematically certain as subtraction. Why the geniuses in the American economics community, all who whom taut economics for its use of mathematical models, cannot understand this is a conundrum. They can tinker as much as they like. Some tinkering will produce apparent benefits, some won't. But one thing is certain—the system, unless it is fundamentally and essentially changed—will break down over and over again just as it has at fairly regularly intervals in the past. As long as maintaining the system is more important that the welfare of people, the people have no escape. They are eventually impoverished—both when the system works and when it doesn't! Two thousand years of history has produced not a single counterexample to this conclusion. Prosperity never results from exploitation.

Another implication that few seem to recognize concerns the national debt.

We are told that the burden of paying off the debt will be borne by our progeny, our children, and their children. But unless the Western commercial system undergoes fundamental changes, the children and grand children of most Americans will never have to bear this burden. Why? Not even governments can pick empty pockets. So if the debt is to be paid by raising taxes, the children and grandchildren of that 20 percent of Americans who hold 93 percent of the nation's financial wealth will have to pay them. Most, if not all, of these people are also investors. Given the acrimonious debate about letting the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire, the chances of that ever happening are slim to none.

Will the debt then be paid by devaluing the dollar, by printing money? Many believe that the government will eventually take this alternative. Let's say it does. Then all the dollars held by anyone anywhere will be devalued equally, including the dollars held by that same 20 percent of Americans. Again the wealthy 20 percent of Americans, having the most, lose the most. The devalued dollars they collect on their investments are merely added to their other devalued dollars, and the more the dollar must be devalued to repay the debt, the more the wealthy lose.

And finally, will the government default? Most seem to believe this to be unlikely. Perhaps, but isn't it the best alternative? Investors will simply not be paid, but the rest of their money will retain its value unless other economic consequences reduce it. Even Morgan Stanley recognizes that "the sovereign debt crisis won't end till deeply indebted rich country governments give holders of their bonds a good soaking."

So relax, Americans, your children will never bear the burden of paying off the national debt. Just sit back and enjoy watching the wealthy squirm.

Some say that if the nation defaults, the government will be unable to borrow. But other governments have defaulted without losing their ability to borrow. Russia, Argentina, and Zimbabwe are but recent examples. Of course, there are severe economic consequences to defaulting, but there are severe consequences to each of these alternatives too. How much harder can life be for the 80 percent of Americans holding a mere seven percent of the nation's wealth? There are, after all, no degrees of broke; no broke, broker, and brokest.

Will investors refuse to lend? Doubtful. A wealthy person can do four things with money: give it away, spend it, stuff it under the mattress, or invest it. Those are the only alternatives, and it is unlikely that much of it can be spent or that many will have the inclination to give it away or save it. So the wealthy really lack a great deal of choice.

Finally, a hidden principle underlies this extractive system—It is okay for some to enrich themselves by making others poor. Even though this is exactly what thieves do, no one, to my knowledge, has ever pointed out that this principle is immoral. It appears to be accepted universally as economically acceptable. But consider these two similar principles: (1) It is okay for some to improve their health by making others unhealthy, and (2) It okay for some to avoid the consequences of their criminal acts by making others bear them. No one would consider the last of these right, yet all three are logically and materially identical.

Some may claim that without profit, no commercial system can function effectively. If true, the implications for humanity are horrific. It implies that mankind was made in Satin's image, that the Commandments, especially the tenth, are fraudulent, that all the philosophy and literature that defines Western Civilization are nugatory, that no essential distinction exists between so-called civilized and barbaric nations, that all governments are illegitimate, that words like justice and fairness are meaningless, that the law is lawless, that society disintegrates into nociety, and that nothing really matters. The economy is Bedlam, the Earth is the Universe's Insane Asylum, and the craziest are in charge. What kind of human mind would ever attempt to defend this abomination?

This Western commercial system exists merely to enrich vendors by exploiting consumers. When governments institutionalize this system, they place their nations on suicidal paths. Astute observers of history have long recognized what Thomas Jefferson made explicit—"Merchants have no country." Oh, yes! These merchants will object vehemently. Pay no attention. Just watch what they do.

They expect favorable treatment and services from governments but do everything possible to keep from paying for them in taxes and exhibit no concern whenever their native lands face bankruptcy. When their native lands face stress, as in times of war, the people are called upon to sacrifice while the merchants are allowed to profiteer. When John F. Kennedy said, "Ask not what your country can do for you, but ask what you can do for your country," he was not speaking to corporate America. Does any reader of this piece really believe that the makers of Humvees, drones, and F16s would ever consider supplying them to our military at cost? Yet how great is the cost of the sacrifice parents are asked to make by sending their children off to fight hideous wars?

People, a merchant unwilling to sacrifice for his country has no country, he will support no country, defend no country, and if such people are given control of a nation, they will suck its blood dry and sell off the body parts to the highest bidder. Not even a recognizable corpse will remain. It is not terrorism that threatens the security of the Western World, it is the Western World's commercial system.



John Kozy is a retired professor of philosophy and logic who writes on social, political, and economic issues. After serving in the U.S. Army during the Korean War, he spent 20 years as a university professor and another 20 years working as a writer. He has published a textbook in formal logic commercially, in academic journals and a small number of commercial magazines, and has written a number of guest editorials for newspapers. His on-line pieces can be found on http://www.jkozy.com/ and he can be emailed from that site's homepage

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Vulnerable nations could hasten international action on climate change by taking industrialised countries to court, say lawyers

Climate-vulnerable developing nations could use international law to break the current deadlock in the intergovernmental negotiations onclimate change by taking industrialised nations to court, says a paper published today (4 October) by the Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development (FIELD).

The publication comes as government officials from around the world gather in Tianjin , China for three days of negotiations under theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

“A large part of the relevant legal literature suggests that the main polluting nations can be held responsible under international law for the harmful effects of their greenhouse-gas emissions,” says the paper’s author, lawyer Christoph Schwarte.

“As a result affected countries may have a substantive right to demand the cessation of a certain amount of emissions. In selected cases they also have the procedural means to pursue an inter-state litigation in an international judicial forum such as the International Court of Justice in The Hague .”

Schwarte’s paper outlines a possible legal argument for such a lawsuit and offers some observations on the potential impacts of bringing a case before an international court or tribunal.

While there are various substantive and procedural legal hurdles, under certain circumstances litigation under public international lawwould be possible and could become a bargaining chip in the negotiations.

“Today, a credible case for inter-state litigation on climate change can be made,” says Schwarte. “Developing country governments are understandably reluctant to challenge any of the big donor nations in an international court or tribunal. But this may change once the impacts of climate change become even more visible and an adequate agreement remains wanting.”

FIELD analyzed the current legal discourse and has summarized its findings in a longer working paper, which it has made available online as an open wiki document to allow legal academics and practitioners to comment on, criticise or strengthen the arguments.

“While international judicial organs are unlikely to issue hard hitting judgments, climate change litigation may help to create the political pressure and third-party guidance required to re-invigorate the international negotiations, within or outside the UNFCCC,” says Schwarte.

Since the failed Copenhagen summit in 2009, there has been limited progress in the UNFCCC climate negotiations. At the current rate of progress, a new legal framework and ambitious emission reductions look unlikely in the near-term.

As a result billions of extra tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will be released into the atmosphere, and many scientists warn that this means global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Joy Hyvarinen, Director of FIELD says ‘Progress in the international climate change negotiations is nowhere near enough to reducegreenhouse gas emissions to a safe level. Something new is needed to push the negotiations forward. Perhaps an international court case could help bring new momentum to the negotiations.’


Monday, September 27, 2010

Analysis: New Ethiopian policy to handle disaster risk

from ReliefWeb

Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

GAMBELLA, 27 September 2010 (IRIN) - Huge bonfires mark the Orthodox Christian feast day of Meskel on 27 September, which coincides with the end of the rainy season in the highlands of Ethiopia. This year rains were good; too good in some places.

The residents of the Cheffa Valley, some 350km northeast of Addis Ababa, will no doubt celebrate the end of the rains. When floods hit the area in late August [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=90287 ], buildings collapsed, houses filled with mud and some villages had to be abandoned while women and children camped at a school and men slept out with their livestock.

Adam Mustafa, 80, said the floods were the worst in his lifetime, a punishment from God; other residents blamed bad management of drainage canals and excessive run-off from the degraded highlands. Local officials blamed a changing climate.

Whatever the causes, help came from local government, welfare groups, the military, local business, UN agencies and international NGOs. A relatively small but effective operation provided immediate help with food, plastic sheeting, clothing, blankets, soap, water purification and healthcare. Military helicopters ferried supplies to stranded villages.

The valley was one of dozens of places across the country to face floods in 2010. Overall this year, the government estimates several hundred thousand people will be affected, while tens of thousands have been forced to leave their homes, at least temporarily, in seven regions. Floods continue to threaten some parts of lowland areas in the Somali and Gambella regions.

Disaster strategy

A new government strategy is under development to establish new systems to tackle perennial hazards including drought, floods and disease outbreaks.

Well-fed by rivers from the highlands on both sides, the broad Cheffa valley, green and sometimes swampy, has obvious agricultural potential - a thin furze of seedlings of a staple crop, teff, is sprouting in the alluvial soils of the flood plain. Some farmers are doing their first weeding, but the floods washed away their earlier planting attempts and they said they could not afford to buy more seeds. Longer-term recovery needs, such as seeds, will take longer to mobilize, local official Jibril Osman Wado told IRIN.

"If this situation continues yearly," said Wado, "farmers will find it difficult to survive." Wado is the zonal head of disaster prevention and food security headquartered in the town of Kemisse.

Health workers were still trying to dry out the files and stores at Kemisse's health centre. Fridges, supplies, drugs, computers and paperwork were swamped. Vacuum tubes for blood samples were caked in mud, medical records turned to pulp and operations disrupted.

"I feel for the patients who were sent back without service," said health centre administrator Hussein Said.

Handling the threat of floods - often overlapping with other natural or man-made emergencies - demands a coherent government response and the sound management of domestic and international resources.

But local officials are careful not to overplay the flooding situation - although it is "challenging", according to Wado - and to emphasise the importance of a recovery plan.

An ability to take relatively small disasters in stride is part of the government's "Disaster Risk Management" approach - a policy framework which looks at the cycle of preventing, mitigating and recovering from disasters in a coherent way.

Drawing on the "Hyogo Framework" [ http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm ], developed at the 2005 World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Japan, Ethiopia's draft policy promises a "paradigm shift". After decades of emergency and reactive relief operations, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said this month the country would no longer need food aid by 2015. The new policy marks an effort to break with the past, by prioritizing national preparedness and engaging the private and voluntary sectors and international agencies only where needed. In the past, "the disaster response structure was excessively reliant on external resources", the document states.

Coping better with disaster - and being seen to do so - is a key government objective, observers say.

Image issues

To the chagrin of Ethiopia's leadership, who have now been in power longer than the former regime of Mengistu Hailemariam, overthrown in 1991, the country struggles to shake off an association with starvation and beggary, analysts told IRIN.

This has been a good year for food security in the whole region but despite the good weather, Ethiopia's vulnerabilities - food insecurity being the most serious - have not gone away. In a country of some 80m, with two million more mouths to feed every year, even a small percentage of needy people translates into a formidable burden.

According to government figures, some five million Ethiopians - about 6 percent - require emergency food aid in 2010, amounting to some 650,000MT (3 percent of the projected national crop production of 18m MT). A further 7.5m people who are chronically food-insecure receive cash or food assistance through the government's Productive Safety Net Programme.

Ethiopia, whose modern history has been closely entwined with drought and food shortages, has been the scene of innovative programmes to mitigate food and climate risk: weather and risk insurance, safety nets, cash transfers and public works programmes.

The government has retooled its disaster response architecture several times since the creation of the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) in the 1970s. In the latest policy a new Federal Disaster Risk Management Council, chaired by Meles, is proposed as the top decision-making body.

Numbers of those in need (and the definition of need), statistics about levels of malnutrition and the prevalence of diseases are closely managed and their political and diplomatic impact closely monitored, aid workers and observers told IRIN.

Some aid workers worry, however, that in the drive to shed the image of a country perennially in crisis and needing foreign emergency aid, the government is too quick to minimize problems.

The 2010 Humanitarian Requirements Document prepared by the government and its international partners refers to a "shift in targeting of beneficiaries for various interventions"; by using a new way of defining those who are eligible for food aid, the head count of the needy fell by hundreds of thousands.

Some aid workers worry that the very poor may lose out in the drive to show progress away from relief dependency.

A humanitarian observer told IRIN the government's approach was to "vapourize" any notion of Ethiopian dependency on emergency handouts.

Just as if it were thrown on a Meskel bonfire.

bp/mw

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