Although always leftist in his views, and not surprisingly so, as he was part of the youth of the 1970s, Meles Zenawi has never been more academic and intellectual in his articulation of his challenge to what he considers is the failing policy prescriptions of global neoliberalism, market fundamentalism, in Africa.
Although veiled in a disclaimer that his doctoral thesis on the subject (to the University of Rotterdam) does not reflect policies of the government that he leads, it was obvious that it was a matter of time before the tenet of his arguments would creep into official documents of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)-led government.
In his own admission, his was the paper that tried to repackage his party’s ideological conviction of so long into an academic challenge.
The role of the state in providing the push to overcome poverty in a developing nation is indispensable the intellectual Meles believes. The state thus needs to be a “developmental state” which ought to be democratic at the same time.
The politician Meles has embarked upon a bold project of making this state not only developmental and democratic (often unlikely bedfellows) but also ensuring continuity of political power to its leaders and cadres through a form of guarantee that is a “one party dominant state.”
For a political party with a history of centre-left ideology, as in the EPRDF, this appears to be a very pragmatic compromise. Unlike its forbearers in the leftist camp, it allows limited and strictly controlled room for other pillars of power and influence to exist and lets a tightly monitored marketplace of ideas emerge. However, this ought not reach the extent of a contesting political power to share or control the state.
The Revolutionary Democrats see the state as a useful instrument not only in steering economic growth but also as a powerful mechanism to help in the reengineering of society, in a manner that they see it fit, of course. Achieving economic growth is only a means to an end.
This end appears to evolve into a complete transformation of the country’s political economy to what is suitable for the ruling party. The one party state, which is apparently different from a single party system, aspires to form a boarder social base, including different interests of Ethiopian society under the umbrella of a governing movement. If at all there is a social group which the Revolutionary Democrats are reluctant to bring onboard, it is the private sector.
The space that the private sector seeks and how much of it governments are willing to concede is always debatable, both ideologically and academically, and varies from country to country.
Where the role of the state in society is defined as an institution that serves the common good - in its delivery of public goods such as collective security, administration of justice, and building of infrastructure - the private sector enjoys more space to thrive. This is an environment whereby a governing party that assumes political power involves liberalisation, privatisation, and deregulation.
The idea behind this is not without merit. A private sector that is less taxed and given much space to operate in the market creates jobs and wealth (for the private sector is considered to be more efficient in utilising resources than the public sector).
In addition, the embedded ideological conviction is that society could also be sheltered from the abusive dominance of the state apparatus. A state with fewer resources and as small a role as possible would have limited ability in intruding in the private affairs of citizens, ideally.
The mistrust between governments and businesses is nothing new; neither is it a phenomenon exclusive to former socialist regimes. Following the laissez-faire form of capitalism - which considers governments’ interference in the market a taboo - Western governments, particularly the United States (US), were convinced of the inevitable involvement of the state in the management of national economies. This view was, of course, reinforced by the historic crash of the world economy following the great Depression in the US in the early 1930s.
Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” was a policy prescription of Maynard Keynes, a British economist who was behind the formation of the Bretton Wood institutions: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB). He is also credited with developing the theory of “demand management,” a policy that encourages governments to use physical and monetary policy instruments to stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment.
What Meles has introduced recently as the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) sounds very similar to the consensus that was reached in the Western world after World War I, the Keynesian-led New Deal. A document, in the sketch stage and yet to be developed into a proper plan, that is, from the political expression of goodwill, the Revolutionary Democrats appear to be treading along the same lines as the capitalists of the 1930s in the US and Europe.
Here too, they swear on their desire to build a capitalist society in Ethiopia down the road when they help its population earn a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of 1,000 dollars. They aspire to have Ethiopia included on the list of middle-income countries by 2025. Their prescription of a policy that sounds very much like demand management clearly makes them “neo-Keynesians.” Perhaps, deceived by their leftist background, it would be misleading to think that they are the only political powers that have turned to the Keynesian model of macroeconomic management.
After the collapse of the global financial system and subsequent meltdown of the world economy in 2008, even the monetarist government of the US turned its face to Keynes. Dubbed by some as “Obanomics” and the “New-new Deal” by others, the US government and many of its peers in the West were seen bailing out their mega companies and trying to stimulate their national economies by injecting hundreds of billions in taxpayer money into them. With some of the companies that were "too big to fail," these governments took measures that barely stopped short of nationalisation.
Following these crises, leaders of the G-20, who held a meeting to which Meles had the privilege of being invited, took the advice of Keynes: market forces alone cannot salvage a national economy from collapse when declining business confidence is followed by a drop in investment, low consumption, depressed spending, and huge job losses. They concluded that government borrowing, spending, and a massive credit push in the economy becomes a necessary evil.
These recent developments have, indeed, vindicated politicians in the developing world, such as Meles, who have been trying to voice their discontent with the market fundamentalism of Ayn Rand and her disciples such as Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve for many years during the terms of George Bush Sr., Bill Clinton, and George Bush Jr.
It is obvious that the global liberal forces are on the retreat. As was the case in the early 1930s and the following decades, the time in Ethiopia and elsewhere in the world has come for social democratic ideals or centre-left parties.
Ethiopia’s history has not been short on such political powers. In fact, all its governments - whether imperial, military-Marxist, or guerrilla-cum-revolutionary democratic - had in common their views of what the state should be in the society they chose to govern.
To their luck, the popular view of the citizenry favours the involvement of the government in every affair of public life. Most Ethiopians do not seem to mind seeing a benevolent welfare state.
Although in the minority, this ideology of a paternalistic state is unsettling for many other people in Ethiopia. The growing influence and control of the government in the private business of citizens and groups sends a shiver down the spine of those who see that space for dissent and independent activities are increasingly stifled. It gets more alarming when the same government comes up with a desire to transform Ethiopia’s society but with the government taking up close to 85pc of the planned spending.
Meles's spending plan will be covered by local sources of income as much as possible the PM told donors last week at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Doing so will free himself and the administration he leads from the accountability that comes from outside through loans and grants, he believes.
In trying to accomplish this, his party plans to increase tax collection to the GDP to 17pc in five years, from the current nine per cent. A rough calculation of this in real terms reaches 170 billion Br, from taxpayers annually.
Such an ambitious plan of demand management and even more daring task of revenue collection from domestic sources are not without their own dire consequences.
Financing mega public projects with the policy objective of creating as many jobs as possible has had terrible consequences elsewhere in the world. The stagflation of the US economy in the 1970s (where inflation galloped to new heights while unemployment was high) compelled the free market politicians in the US to impose quotas and price controls during the era of Richard Nixon.
Citizens should be protected from abuses of the government, Ronald Regan believed, and, along with Margaret Thatcher of Britain, their two monetarist regimes helped recover the world economy in the 1980s. Advocating the trickledown effect in an economy, whereby the wealth of the rich inevitably reaches the working class, both leaders took the historic route of liberalisation and deregulation that has not only limited state power in their societies but also paved the way for unprecedented creation of global wealth for almost four decades.
It is refreshing to see Meles being ambitious and taking such bold initiatives. That is expected of a leader. However, There is only so much a government can do on its own, the economic history of the world shows. Perhaps, it may be worth his efforts to consider the private sector as much in his proposed (yet to be elaborated upon) plan. What the country has been deprived of for so long is a system that allows fair competition in the market, based on merit and one’s own efforts.(http://www.addisfortune.com/fortune_editors_note.html)

