By De Birhan
06 Feb 2013
06 Feb 2013
Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff write that the concept of the prisoners’ dilemma was developed by RAND Corporation scientists Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher and was formalized by Albert W. Tucker, a Princeton mathematician.
F. Heylighen's 1995 article gives an example of a situation to explain the "Prisoners' Dilemma" in a simpler model. He says, "imagine two individuals arrested under the suspicion of having committed a crime together."
The two prisoners are isolated from each other, and the police visit each of them and offer a deal: the one who offers evidence against the other one will be freed. If none of them accepts the offer, they are in fact cooperating against the police, and both of them will get only a small punishment because of lack of proof. They both gain. However, if one of them betrays the other one, by confessing to the police, the defector will gain more, since he is freed; the one who remained silent, on the other hand, will receive the full punishment, since he did not help the police, and there is sufficient proof. If both betray, both will be punished, but less severely than if they had refused to talk.
Another global example of the Dilemma is the arms races between superpowers or local rival nations. Two countries are better off when they cooperate and avoid an arms race. Yet the dominant strategy for each is to arm itself heavily.
Groups lacking cooperation are like dodoes,
losing the battle for survival collectively rather than individually.
The normal game is shown below:
| Prisoner B stays silent (cooperates) | Prisoner B betrays (defects) | |
|---|---|---|
| Prisoner A stays silent (cooperates) | Each serves 1 year | Prisoner A: 3 years Prisoner B: goes free |
| Prisoner A betrays (defects) | Prisoner A: goes free Prisoner B: 3 years | Each serves 2 years |
The prisoner's dilemma is a case in which actions determined by self-interest are not in the group's interest (where the group is defined to include only the prisoners). Same would be the case in the matters of nation states.
Ethiopian 'Dilemma' in brief
Present day Ethiopia seems to be a typical example of "The Prisoners' Dilemma" in multifarious ways. While the majority of Ethiopians claim to have been persecuted and oppressed by the current regime and at times metaphorically describe their mere difference from their compatriots under the Penology as "living in the bigger prision" system,these same people who have been giving out for decades have resided bordering the betrayers camp. Being a fully "Silent/ Cooperator Prisioner" has been the most difficult thing that has been predominantly lagging the struggle.
When people cooperate or remain silent against their prison mates as we read in the examples of the "The Prisoners' Dilemma", they both equally gain. Only when few Ethiopians stop defecting, betraying and confessing against their own brothers and sisters and cooperate against those that arrest, abuse, repress and discriminate them, would they/we then be free.
| Prisoner B stays silent (cooperates) | |
|---|---|
| Prisoner A stays silent (cooperates) | Each serves 1 year |
As in the table above, when all prisoners or
the Ethiopian mass living under
the hypothetical "political prison" remain 'silent/cooperate', each
suffer very little and win together. That has not been sadly the case so far. When few remained "silent/cooperated", many "betrayed".
Going to the real prison houses in Ethiopia, we find a similar pedigree of Dilemma. It is to be remembered that the courageous Ethiopian teacher and Journalist Reeyot Alemu has been offered a "Confession for Freedom" offer from Ethiopian authorities making her a victim and typical case of this Dilemma practically working in the Ethiopian system. It is to be recalled from News reports and Reeyot's own words that she has been promised by prison officers and the Ethiopian Police Officials that she would be freed if she testified/confessed against her own friends who were in prison. She refused. This is now "silence/cooperation" in the realest sense of "The Prisoners' Dilemma". Kudos again Reeyot!
Going to the real prison houses in Ethiopia, we find a similar pedigree of Dilemma. It is to be remembered that the courageous Ethiopian teacher and Journalist Reeyot Alemu has been offered a "Confession for Freedom" offer from Ethiopian authorities making her a victim and typical case of this Dilemma practically working in the Ethiopian system. It is to be recalled from News reports and Reeyot's own words that she has been promised by prison officers and the Ethiopian Police Officials that she would be freed if she testified/confessed against her own friends who were in prison. She refused. This is now "silence/cooperation" in the realest sense of "The Prisoners' Dilemma". Kudos again Reeyot!
A good case in point that is against
Reeyot's "cooperative" game is the case
of Zemenu Mola, who confessed against his co-prisoner and mate, Eskinder Nega. Zemenu Mola, the then Vice President
of All Ethiopian Democratic Party was arrested with
Eskinder Nega and Andualem Aragie on same day in 2011. However, Zemenu had reportedly confessed against Eskinder Nega in Court and was freed soon after while Eskinder
still suffers in Kalaiti. Local media then reported that when Zemenu was leaving the Courtroom after making his confession on his friend he started to weep when Eskinder said to loudly him "Zemenu, the
God of Truth sees!". Zemenu betrayed Eskinder by 'falsely'
confessing to the authorities. The defector, Zemenu gained more, benefits, freedom;
the one who remained silent, Eskinder, on the other hand, received full
punishment, since he did not confess against any of his prison mates
and friends. The Zemenus of the smaller Ethiopian prison cells and the bigger Ethiopia both inside and outside the Country are growing in number. Many artists, politicians and activists who had vowed to remain "unsold with perseverance" and oppose injustice have gradually betrayed their "co-prisoners'' and joined the "oppressors camp".
With no need for sophisticated exemplification of the Ethiopian case of "The Prisoners' Dilemma", suffice to say that whole Nation, the opposition and the Diaspora are all floating in the game of "The Prisoners' Dilemma". When some cooperate and commit themselves to the biggest causes they stood for and for betterment of the Country and their compatriots, few others selfishly betray and elongate the suffering of the mass.
Although we say the room for learning the decisions of the other prisoner in the actual prisons is too little to make the right decisions, the Ethiopian mass living inside the "bigger prison" i.e. the political Nation State of Ethiopia, has all the opportunities of scoring a Nesh equilibrium (a concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one where no player has an incentive to deviate from his or her chosen strategy after considering an opponent's choice, as to investopedia's definition).
Although we say the room for learning the decisions of the other prisoner in the actual prisons is too little to make the right decisions, the Ethiopian mass living inside the "bigger prison" i.e. the political Nation State of Ethiopia, has all the opportunities of scoring a Nesh equilibrium (a concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one where no player has an incentive to deviate from his or her chosen strategy after considering an opponent's choice, as to investopedia's definition).